Inter Milan brass taking massive gamble with Balotelli sale

Soccer Betting Lines

07/26/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With reports surfacing that Inter Milan are prepared to transfer Mario Balotelli to Manchester City for a fee in the range of 30 million Euros, the young star's tumultuous time with the club seems to be at an end.

The 19-year-old Balotelli is a supremely gifted player with the ability to use his strength and quickness to elude opponents and create quality scoring opportunities. Even at a young age, the skill set the young Italian possesses is of an elite nature.

Should Balotelli continue to progress, he could eventually become one of the best players in the world, a factor that makes his sale a reluctant one for Inter. It should be noted that Inter does not need to sell Balotelli at this point as a result of any financial constraints - they're choosing to because of issues with his character.

While Balotelli does possess top-level skill, his mental stability and petulant behavior has caused concerns in Milan, so much so that some fellow teammates reportedly want to see him removed from the team's roster. Spats with Inter fans and former coach Jose Mourinho are well-documented, while his appearance on national television wearing heated rival AC Milan's jersey did not sit well with Inter supporters, to say the least.

So intense were his issues with Mourinho that he was benched for long stretches throughout the season, the last for throwing his jersey on the ground after fans booed him for a poor display in a Champions League match against Barcelona.

Balotelli is without question lacking maturity at this point in his career, yet it didn't stop some of the top clubs in Europe from inquiring about his services. The growing pains for Balotelli have been a constant throughout his career, but were not surprising given that he's been under the microscope since the age of 17.

His conflicts with coaches and fellow players are alarming, but will likely lessen once Balotelli matures in age and is taken under the wing by an established soccer mind. Balotelli's former Inter coach and current Manchester boss Roberto Mancini seems adept at taking on such a challenge and it's one that could reap huge benefits for both Balotelli and Mancini.

Considering his age, the risk of bringing in Balotelli from a Manchester City point-of-view is minimal, and the club's new owners have declared they'll spend whatever money is necessary to compete in the English Premier League, along with contending in other European competitions.

The risk is much greater for Inter, considering the club's reputation in parts of Italy. With a roster boasting very few Italian players, the sale of Balotelli will likely not sit well with purists who believe Italian clubs should groom their own home-grown players over foreigners. While the sale amount of 30 million Euros is nothing to groan about, if Balotelli is able to put both his mental and physical game together, he will likely be worth double that amount in a few short years.

With Rafa Benitez taking over the club from departed manager Jose Mourinho, the opportunity is there for a fresh start for Balotelli at Inter. The Spanish manager has the chance to instill a vote of confidence in the young star that he felt was waning with Mourinho. Whether or not Balotelli has burned too many bridges over the last few seasons to make that possibility a reality is questionable at this point. One thing that's not in question is Balotelli's skill set, but whether he takes advantage of such talent is squarely on the shoulders of the young Italian himself.

It's said that patience is a virtue and, in the case of Balotelli, it could prove either a catastrophic risk or magnificent judgement. At this point, it seems to be a 50-50 proposition but one that could see Manchester City benefit much more than Inter Milan, should the sale go through.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.