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07/27/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Slumping lefty Ted Lilly faces a team against which he's had career-long success tonight, when the Chicago Cubs meet the Houston Astros in the second test of a three-game series at Minute Maid Park.
In Monday's opener, Ryan Theriot hit his first home run of the season and Carlos Silva worked five innings to push Chicago past Houston, 5-2.
Theriot finished with a pair of hits and Alfonso Soriano doubled twice, scored a run and drove in a run to lift the Cubs to their third win in four games.
Silva (10-4) yielded a lone run on five hits while walking one and fanning four for Chicago. Carlos Marmol worked a scoreless ninth inning to preserve the win and earn his 19th save of the season.
Wesley Wright (0-1) absorbed the loss in his second big-league start after giving up four runs on eight hits over five innings. He walked one and struck out four for the Astros, who have dropped three out of four.
Lilly, rumored to be a hot commodity on the trade market as the non-waiver transaction deadline approaches at the end of the month, has won seven of eight decisions in 11 career starts against Houston while maintaining a stingy 2.36 earned run average in 72 1/3 innings.
He pitched well enough for an eighth win when facing the Astros in his most recent start on July 21, scattering seven hits and allowing a single run in 7 1/3 innings of a game the Cubs eventually lost, 4-3, at Wrigley Field.
The tough-luck no-decision is part of a recent rough stretch for the 34-year- old Californian, who is winless in four starts since defeating Pittsburgh on June 29. He's 0-2 with two no-decisions in the subsequent efforts, while allowing 28 hits and 20 runs in 24 2/3 innings.
A 1996 draft pick of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Lilly is 1-4 in seven road starts this season.
Houston counters with red-hot right-hander Brett Myers, who by contrast, has not lost since June 29.
The 29-year-old Jacksonville product, who'll turn 30 next month, has beaten St. Louis and Pittsburgh and racked up a pair of no-decisions in his last four starts, while giving up just 19 hits and six runs in 28 2/3 innings.
Myers also got a tough-luck no-decision after facing Lilly in the aforementioned July 21 game at Wrigley, allowing five hits and a run with eight strikeouts in seven innings in Houston's one-run win. He's pitched at least seven innings in three straight starts and has struck out 17 batters while walking just three.
Lifetime against the Cubs, Myers is 8-3 with a pair of complete games and a 2.52 ERA in 85 2/3 innings. He's unbeaten so far in 2010 at home, having gone 5-0 in nine starts.
Houston has won six of 10 matchups with the Cubs this season.
<< Mets return home to face Wainwright following disastrous trip
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After a disastrous road trip, the New York Mets return home
in the hopes of finding their offense. Too bad they have St. Louis ace Adam
Wainwright waiting for them.
Wainwright will look to extend his scoreless innings stre
<< Dodgers hope to gain some ground in San Diego
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After stumbling out of the gate to begin the second half,
the Dodgers have finally started to turn things around. It's a good thing,
because the National League West-leading Padres have had no such troubles
since the All-Star
<< Blue Jays try to continue mastery of Orioles
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Plenty of teams have given the Baltimore Orioles trouble
over the course of this season, but none has proven to be a tougher opponent
than the Toronto Blue Jays.
Having won all 10 meetings between the American League East
<< Shields and Verlander square off at the Trop
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After being on the receiving end of several no-hitters over
the past year, the Tampa Bay Rays finally got one of their own last night.
Fresh off Matt Garza's pitching gem, the Rays will attempt to pin an eighth
consecutive
White Sox put home streak on line against Mariners >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox shoot for their ninth straight home
win this evening, when they continue their four-game series against the
Seattle Mariners at U.S. Cellular Field,
After a 4-6 road trip, Chicago returned to the Wind
Johnson hopes for record-setting start in Marlins-Giants tilt >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Josh Johnson could put himself into the record books when
the Florida Marlins continue their four-game series with the San Francisco
Giants this evening at AT&T Park.
Johnson has gone 13 straight starts without allowin
Lackey returns to Anaheim as Red Sox take on Angels >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - John Lackey returns to Anaheim for the first time since
leaving for Boston as a free agent when the Red Sox continue their three-game
set against the Angels this evening.
Lackey, who was 49-32 with a 3.72 earned run averag
A-Rod continues quest for 600 vs. Indians >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Yankees used the long ball to come through
with a win over the Cleveland Indians last night, but none came off the bat of
Alex Rodriguez.
With their star slugger still stuck on 599 career home runs, the Yankee
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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